I don’t think they can offer that eastern Moba route up as a 5mtpa - 10mtpa option at all at the moment tbh ; my opinion is that with decent upgrade it could cope with a 2mtpa operation and maxed out at 2.5-3mtpa operation.
Obviously major upgrade works and imo shifting away somewhere parallel from that actual current road alignment, due to and my opinion the tracks actual geological profile in that belt, would no doubt change my opinion and figures.
For me; considering the above, I’m not sure if the current transport figures circa of $180pt out through Moba would of been of any real interest to investors or any company interested in Manono with the view to near time mining.
Why? Because I don’t reckon it’s a near term mining route. Also I reckon that any potential suitor/ Partner or other, would be very much more interested in reaping the rewards of a Chem plant for this resource to feed into and I reckon that the southern route is prime for that; the workforce , chemical plants, power, rail etc are already insitu...rail also runs east and west ; South too , but I don’t reckon Durbin is an option.
I did contact the company some time ago now asking if a Chem plant was something they were looking at; all options were being looked at or at least had been considered is what I was hearing ; but IMO the transport figures that they had for the eastern route were blinkering them, because when I asked about the Chem plant ..a reply like ‘there’s not much additional benefit to a Chem plant over running concentrate with the current transport figures’ ....
I was left scratching my head with that tbh; because why would you focus on a route that’s maxed out with 2-2.5mtpa and then feeding into the tail end of a rail system that can hardly handle that alone ?? Also , that route will take time and $$$ to open up...
The Road to Manono running south .... well that will be open and feeding Manono by the end of this year..considering the rail east, west...south from Lubumbashi and the infrastructure if one wished to develope a Chem plant and reduce the volume being railed our massively; whilst also dealing with a product with a considerable lower per a ratio transport figure whilst cranking profile....IMO south is a no brainer if anyone is interested in taking this to mine early.
for me ; I reckon the figures running south and being realistic at this time would be circa $200-$240ish p/t range; but early on early development that’s the way you need to run.
I’ve no doubt that up to 5mtpa output volume circa 900kt is possible to haul South. Chem plant takes this volume sub 180 tpa of product.
For me this is an absolute no brainer and tbh I reckon management maybe blinkered by fluffy figures on a longer term route , as opposed to what I reckon any interested party would be fully interested in running with for near term development and that is running this straight to Lubumbashi and opening Manono up; get cash flowing ; ramp to 5mtpa and then 10mtpa thereafter. Develope the Moba route ; develope the western route..
IMO it’s the southern route that will be the route that most will be interested.
AVZ Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held