the real bad news, page-16

Bloater, if she can't get a full handle on the company in six weeks then how has she managed to determine that coke earnings are going to fall 15% from the previous forecast of zero 8 weeks ago in her six weeks?

I think the old guy was overstating earnings potential but ms Watkins is understating earnings. It is very common for CEOs to push a lot of unnecessary cost in their first FY and write down anything that moves because it sets a very low bar and makes it very easy for them to reach bonus targets. Don't ever assume they are too stupid to know this trick.

Based on announced data, volumes are down 3% and profits 25%. They are selling the same amount of coke as last year at the same price (I buy coke every day so I know the price) so either the books are/were cooked or input costs went up 22%. I'm leaning towards the first because I didn't like the assignment of some costs in the notes and the tax didn't match the income.... Tax is always an excellent indicator of income.

I still think it is a good company and I'll be averaging down. Hoping $7 low now instead of $8-9. Shoulda seen the downgrade coming with the new boss.