The $26m EBITDA was when the plant ran poorly, the true EBITDA when it runs well is closer to $28.5m
Interest costs of $17m is overstated. The debt at the end of 2012 had been reduced to $206,270k with an interest rate of 8.05% or $16.6m pa (obviously reducing each year as it is paid down)
As for Capex, what you will find is that prior years have been slightly distorted and the true amount going forward is closer to $3m pa.
As for the Ausgrid action, it has a huge bearing on the cashflows. If the result is positive then AEJ will charge the Carbon tax to Ausgrid and the government will provide free credits to AEJ which can then be sold for further cash.
I assume that any renegotiation of the long term funding may come with a reduced interest rate and may actually change the lock up period. This however we will not know until June 13 at the earliest. The extension to June 134 will not change the current arrangement just remove the necessity to announce the extension each month.
AEJ Price at posting:
$6.61 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
