Seems very cheap to me as well at the current share price of 2 cents
There is only 330 million shares on issue , so not many at all
The business already has $40m revenue from traffic lights and signage and a sprinkle of revenue from the street lighting at the Calder Freeway and Eastern freeway
Add the Brisbane road lighting , and another $7m per annum in these contracts it would not be difficult to estimate revenue of $50m in 2016, and then $55-$60m in 2017
At a 10% EBIT margin thats $5m to use towards reducing the heavy debt that smashed the share price , which could be gone pretty quickly on this type of earnings level
The Current market cap is $6.5m but you need to add the $15m of debt to get the enterprise value so at 2 cents per share that = $21m or just 4 times current year EBIT forecast
In my view a more realistic multiple would be 8-10 2016 EBIT forecast or a $40m business value
Thats debt of $15m , and equity of $25m , or a share price of 8 cents per share
if the share price does rise to that level a placement of 100m shares at 7 cents would be positive in removing $7m of the debt
You would then have 430 m shares on issue , but almost no debt after 18 months , and with tax losses to remove tax cost you would have a NPAT of close to $5m
SO on that basis I agree 4 cents is far from out of the question in the shorter term
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1 | 150000 | 0.022 |
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