TTI 0.00% 0.4¢ traffic technologies ltd.

The potential Looks Good for 2016, page-4

  1. 4,994 Posts.
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    Seems very cheap to me as well at the current share price of 2 cents

    There is only 330 million shares on issue , so not many at all

    The business already has $40m revenue from traffic lights and signage and a sprinkle of revenue from the street lighting at the Calder Freeway and Eastern freeway

    Add the Brisbane road lighting , and another $7m per annum in these contracts it would not be difficult to estimate revenue of $50m in 2016, and then $55-$60m in 2017

    At a 10% EBIT margin thats $5m to use towards reducing the heavy debt that smashed the share price , which could be gone pretty quickly on this type of earnings level

    The Current market cap is $6.5m but you need to add the $15m of debt to get the enterprise value so at 2 cents per share that = $21m or just 4 times current year EBIT forecast

    In my view a more realistic multiple would be 8-10 2016 EBIT forecast or a $40m business value

    Thats debt of $15m , and equity of $25m , or a share price of 8 cents per share

    if the share price does rise to that level a placement of 100m shares at 7 cents would be positive in removing $7m of the debt

    You would then have 430 m shares on issue , but almost no debt after 18 months , and with tax losses to remove tax cost you would have a NPAT of close to $5m

    SO on that basis I agree 4 cents is far from out of the question in the shorter term
 
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