mjp,
you are playing around and ignoring the OP claim.
You have made claims that the polar vortex loosening is consistent with a global warming. You WERE steadfast on that although no longer.
So I have shown you that via observations that the IPCC have acknowledged that the polar vortex and jet streams contracted from the 70s to the 90s. I have shown that the IPCC have observed that this is because of a cooling stratosphere
I am numbering the points below that will validate the above. if you feel they do not validate the above then the numbering will make it easier to address or just flat out refute later on
1. As in the snip below it is clear that MODELING has confirmed that the Polar Vortex has retreated, contracted, strengthened because of the following troposphere ghg's and ozone depletion. Each of these causes the same effect. A cooler stratosphere.
2. This piece highlights that when the sun does not shine on the Northern Hemisphere Polar regions the POLAR VORTEX is at its strongest! It also again highlights the association of a cooling stratosphere with a lack of ozone and increased ghg's
3. This next piece highlighted section confirms that the IPCC have clearly established that a increase in stratosphere warming (increased ozone) will not be enough to counter the increasing ghg's. We KNOW as FACT that increasing ghg's in the troposphere will cause the stratosphere to cool!
4. The snio below can not get any clearer. We do not need a model to tell us what happens when the stratosphere cools. And the IPCC make it clear. Refer to the highlighted section only. It is irrelevant how the stratosphere got cool. But a cooler stratosphere is associated with a stronger polar vortex!
5. Again it is highlighted that ozone depletion in the stratosphere equates to a cooler stratosphere and thus a stronger polar vortex.
The physics in the Southern Hemisphere is not different to the Northern Hemisphere. i would be astounded if you are to call that!
6. Chapter 11 AR5, Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
11.3.2.2 Free Atmospheric Temperature
Changes in zonal mean temperature for the near-term period (2016– 2035 compared to the base period 1986–2005) for the multi-model CMIP5 ensemble show a pattern similar to that in the CMIP3, with warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere of a couple of degrees that is significant even in the near term period.
7. Now this reference to CO2 and O3 is pertinent. the IPCC cannot be any clearer with there modeling suggestions. Strato O3 is being affected by the cooling stratosphere. And we have already LINKED a declining O3 content with a tighter and stronger poler vortex!
11.3.5.1.2 Tropospheric and stratospheric O3
Stratospheric O3 is being driven by declining chlorine levels, changing N2O and CH4, cooler temperatures from increased CO2, and a more vigorous overturning circulation in the stratosphere driven by more wave propagation under climate change
8. This snip is clear as well. Since the 70s all circulation patterns have seen a poleward movement. I am unsure what it is you are disputing with this. the ast papragrapgh is pretty straight forward!
9. I am still sticking to WHAT the IPCC have stated where they have made clear that CO2 induced cooling on the Stratosphere by limiting outgoing radiation to the STRATOSPHERE is responsible for the COOLING strato and the POLEWARD movement of the Polar Vortex and and even OTHER circulation features
This post is too long for me to now spell check. grammar check and even confirm the right snips are assigned to the right points
