There is nothing in any of those highlights that claims the polar vortex was consistently moving poleward. Which was your claim.
NAO changes "associated with" stronger polar vortex in winter lower stratosphere does not support your claim of a long term northward trend. And recent trends in annular modes is also not an observation or prediction on the polar vortex. Neither contradict the increased wobbliness of the polar vortex observed in Francis' work which I have posted on.
You also post on MMD modelling interannual trends. That specifically also comments "the uncertainty is large". I am not seeing any confident prediction of long term trends.
And Arblaster and Meehl's work is about the Southern annular mode. I was talking about the northern hemisphere polar vortex and it's wobbliness.
I think your 3.5.2 AR4 ref is your best, but when you are talking about "statistically significant" variations, you are not exactly talking about significant long term trends. And as you highlight goes on to say that variability reverses over the decades. Again, consistent with the IPCC quote I gave from AR5 on the abscence of clear trends given high variability.
And comments on intensification also don't suggest a poleward movement, nor are inconsistent with a wavier, less constrained polar vortex.
Your reading of this stretches any sensible comprehension, particularly when other sections of the IPCC report specifically state no trend observable due to high variability.
There is a lot of detail there but claiming that is inconsistent with Francis' work doesn't make sense to me.
