I (personally) believe the oil market has bottomed .....the usa shale "revolution" will ovr time, be shown to be an exercise in financial engerneering .....you can get an idea as to decline curves from
shaleprofile.com
mr Enno Peters deserves a huge congrats - it is awesome data (to ex geo's and closet engerners ....).....
imho - the "decline" is already in place, and this can be seen in some of the public data:
1. usa imports of medium and heavy crudes has been increasing !
2. exports of light / ultra light oils increasing (post legislation chg)
3. the reason for this is talmost all the shale stuff produces an ultra light crude that is less able to be processed into transport fuels to suit the US market.....
as you have quite rightly pointed out - it will take some time for this to flow onto highe commodity prices (b/c the perception that the "large stockpile" is the cushion that markets need to prevent prices from increasing ! - EVEN thou this is not "useable oil in the US market place" !!!!!) and further time to flow onto the offshore serveies industries (ie drilling uptick) ....
as a result - MRM is a "dead duck" in terms of its capital position ........management only have a couple of options:
1. dilutive cap raise (say 200m)
2. merger of "equals" ......lol !!!
so will continue to wait .....if it merges - then it may rally hard - but I (try not to) take those kinds of risks
rgds
V_H
MRM Price at posting:
27.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
