the major problem for coke, page-51

thanks ace

My view is broadly i expect a 3 monthish sideways consolidation move until the june 30 earnings get reported. As i posted, I see the sales environment as now neutral - this morning;s 'reorg' just lets the new ceo claim the upside from here as hers plus offers the requisite scapegoat to the board and externals.

I think it also offers genuine recognition that CCL needs to box clever to combat the margin pressure coles and woolworths have been applying.

CCL earnings margin and volumes not without further risk - but my view is we'll trawl along around this $9 benchmark and either (70% probability) consumption will broadly stay intact - or china property falls over and that combined with Hockett's 'sackcloth and ashes' bugdet drive people further into their spending shells (30% probability).

Soft drink consumption is clearly affected at the margin - regardless of the old myth about its demand being fairly inelastic.

Conservative investors will wait for 30 June numbers in August.

But I'm skewed more to accept the risk for the extra performance.

Having said this i only started looking at ccl again once it had this recent leg down. Before that all the fundamental signals were neutral/negative.

And now i only view it as fair value - not outrageously cheap.