Your mate's generalties can be easily found in just a scanning a few of the articles surrounding power utilities. I seriously doubt their "projections have been blasted out of the water," though. That would suggest they're incompetent ostriches.EPW's ROE alone puts that argument to bed.
Parallells to world oil markets that your mate makes are too vague, and I suspect flawed. Geo-politics, shale and CSG, the USD, war, mostly don't affect EPW except perhaps positively. The only correlation is that both are down, and you two feel power generators will continue to go down.
Hard numbers rather than mate's anecdotes are demaded regarding power use by manufacturer's to establish a trend, which you imply is down and irreversible. In other words worthless for a serious investment decision.
As for residential use the coal-loving governments play an enormous role in subsidizing panels/installation, their cost and and pricing (if in future any) to sell energy back into the grid. To protect King Coal rules, laws and subsidies can change. This is cold, cloudy, near antarctic latitude Australia, not sunny near-equator Germany >sarc<. Australia even has a moral argument for coal's use! Not sarc.
Concerning, " retail side of things, the market share apparently swings to and fro quiet[sp] strongly so the market you have today you may not have tomorrow," many thanks for the econ 101 lesson, but how does that truism in all industries DIRECTLY affect EPW's hard numbers, apart from and relative to all the rest of the power generators in direct competition with EPW?
Clearly the storage (battery) is a game changer -- along with solar efficiencies -- but that battery case has been kicked around for over a decade; you're suggesting, "battery systems become more affordable in the next few years." One day, yes, but not a foreseeable event in the medium-long term.
All in all you and you mate have quite the discussions. I eny you two. However, your "cautionary" tale is more an unsubstantiated bear attack than the basis of an investment decision, ie. anecdotal, open-ended, poor analogies, fraught with doom, ending with EPW going to zero.
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