the "how much" guessing game, page-7

As I understand it, the creep provision would allow AWE (thru ARC Energy) to purchase a maximum of 3% in any 6 month period, or 6% a year without having to launch a takeover offer.

This is the state of affairs for AWE if the bid fails but this was also true prior to the launch of the takeover offer. So why bother making a bid at all?

With AWE sitting on 33.8% it would presumably take over 2.5 years to gain control of ADI in this way. It stands to reason that AWE analysed the expected outcome under this scenario and compared it with going for full ownership now via a takeover offer.

AWE obviously chose to make a bid now and we can only speculate as to the real reasons behind this decision, aside from those provided in the bidder's statement.