the "how much" guessing game, page-12

I've been on ADI years ago, disappointed with how slow sugarloaf was taking and got out to focus on coal seamers.

Have kept an eye out though as my dad kept his shares and i have bought more recently when it became clear that things were starting to move more quickly with new JVP. I have a buy order in now for 41c . didn't happen today. hopefully it's moving up the ladder!

My take on the t/o offer from AWE and ARC is that it's very opportunistic and a JOKE of a price!!! An insult to any shareholder who knows what ADI are sitting on in fact.

- It's hard to work out their exact intentions here, because the relationships between the 3 companies are VERY close.

Don't forget ADI was born out of the old ARC energy (can't remember what kind of birth that was!) and ARC was always a major shareholder and financier for ADI. since then ARC was taken over by AWE. AWE and ADI share office space and functions!.. does that mean the AWE staff are writing the ADI response to their own offer???? the mind boggles!

there are plenty of opportunities for conflicts of interest here... no doubt every relative of directors past and present will have shares in either or both companies!

... but staying on the positive side - I think ADI's delaying tactics might be very handy - ie. the slower they respond, the closer we get to frac results from the latest well.... and that could really blow the 40c offer out of the ball park. 3 direct hits out of 3 would really de-risk the project for investors and brokers, and would be reflected when ADI responds.

It may well be the case the the whole deal is an attention grabbing exercise to bolster support for ADI.
don't get me wrong - AWE would LOVE to have ADI for 40c per share - but they must be smart enough to know it ain't gonna happen!

My prediction is that they will increase their holding somewhat... but unless they offer over say 60c, they'll struggle to get beyond even 50%.... BUT they'll still win, because the attention on ADI will increase the value of their stake dramatically, and probably put a new solid support level under the SP.

so bring on the frac results!... when do we expect that again?

a question.. how much can AWE afford to spend?

... all this is just opinion of course
....mE