That's a very good question pkedwards. What you are asking are Gage Roads a "price taker" ? There are some important points here. Gage Roads , with the assistance of Woolies, plan to halve the cost of production as the volume ramps up from 1.2M to 3 million cartons p.a by 2015. For the contract brewing they do for Woolies both parties with share 50/50 in the reduced production costs. From Woolies position the international brewers are not interested in brewing home brand products that will compete against them. I think Coles had to go offshore to get there homebrands brewed. So Woolies actually has a vital interest in a quality, dependable, independent, low cost brewer. The real value will be unlocked as GRB develops relationships with craft brands as a contract brewer - ideally over time would be good to see a 50/50 split. Where it gets interesting is as Gage Rd's develops relationships with craft brewers this may lead to adding brands to their portfolio through takeovers via issuing shares etc. As more craft brands are added and costs of production decreases the business will become very valuable. Little Creatures was taken out on a PE of 23 for memory. On a 2015 PE of 20 value is around 30 cents a share.
GRB Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held