I may be totally off track but I don't think Russia has been...

I may be totally off track but I don't think Russia has been bluffed, if anything I think the US are the ones that got a little rattled when Russia made it pretty clear for the US to stay away and not interfere, whether the US hegomy allows them to take head, we'll see soon enough!
I think the halt in air strikes is more tactically based, and could recommence on a more tactical need to asssist with close air support to troops on the ground assaulting specific positions rather than strategic pre emptive strikes!
Again, interesting times!
The Russians now have a much bigger presence with much greater force projection than the US. Hence as you say catgut, another false flag will be required!