Hi lionel,Glad you find it helpful.I put it together back in...

Hi lionel,

Glad you find it helpful.

I put it together back in early March, I havnt changed it since then, & I got it out when the thread about valuations started.
I just wrote some notes on it so someone else could work out how to use it.
I debated with myself as to weather I should share it or not for a while, I though someone would just pick it to bits, but in the end I thought it might be handy for someone else out there.

Remember I am trying to be nearly right & not completely wrong, with this exercise, so it's never going to be completely accurate.

Anyway, at that time I didnt know about the royalties from the Great Australia Mine.
It is also set up as though Exco are going to build their own plant, (I guess you already worked that out).

So it's a couple of months out of date, I just had a look at the figures and I can see some changes that need to be made, straight away.

In Project 1, the CCP, the other costs column, which is for royalties etc., should be bumped up to around $5mil per yr.

In Project 2, WD, the royalties for the both years should also be $5mil a year.

Then in company totals, other income should have $10mil a year for the first three years for the royalty from the GAM.

Also cash at bank should be increased, I made it $25mil, to be conservative, it will probably be a lot more, you can change it to what you like.

In the end though, those changes make only a few cents difference to the DCF model and the 10yr Average model using a P/E ratio of 4 (I dont much like guessing a P/E ratio, to much guess work, I just put it in there to see what it would show).
In trying to guess what P/E number to use, I check to see, & use an approximate average of, the P/E number the DCF model comes up with after it has run, as you can see it gives a P/E ratio at the bottom under the four projected prices.

I agree the Tax rate will probably be less than shown, just a little more value up my sleeve.

As far as the year 1 question goes, the timeframe for building our own plant must be blowing out now (I think the chances are slim anyway), with no CCP decision and no mining permit, so the dates on the column's are not going to be right anymore.

If you wanted to be a lot more accurate with the CCP plant model, you could change the column dates to 2011 onwards, leave WD the same & put all zeros in the first CCP column for 2011, & half values in the 2012 column, so you would be saying that nothing will happen with the CCP until the second half of next year.

I prefer to leave it as is, to show some value for the CCP no matter how it ends up being used.

Just think of it as a ballpark figure, I guess.

cheers