Hi Guys,Given current pause in excitement I thought it might be...

Hi Guys,

Given current pause in excitement I thought it might be a good time to throw caution to the wind and try to give a very rough valuation of Exco.

***Please note this is very basic (and does not represent any detailed valuation) and does not look at complex dynamics such as spot gold prices, exchange rates and other company fundamentals, all it is attempting to do is calculate a basic value price compared to the current share price (.62 cents) and guestimate the value of say a (speculative) takeover price.

Jako I know will come up with other scenarios here but in an effort to get this forum refocused on what is important... here we go.

Exco 346m issued shares 9.1m unlisted options for the sake of this exercise lets just use 364m as the base.

Recent figures $25m cash in bank = valuation $0.06 cents per share.

Whitedam say 2-3 years resource at current rates net worth to Exco estimated S100-$150m for exercise lets go for conservative 2/3rds of say potential value to Exco say $100m = valuation of $0.27 cents per share.

MA in November saying CCP worth 2-3 times (both in size and worth to Exco of Whitedam) again say lets go for conservative 2/3rds of say the potential value say 2.5 x100m = .68 cents per share.

Then the speculative valuation part, this is really guess work, the other tenements and the Potential upside of all the ground and leases e.g. how does one value a further discovery/upgrade, for the exercise lets say the spec value of this asset is from $0.01-$1.00. (please note this is for this exercise, and does not compare the potential blue sky say of a Sandfire (SFR) discovery and this could be in the $$$. Lets go ultra conservative and say 1/3rd = .33 cents per Exco share.

I hear some of you say - Less any liabilities so for this exercise let?s take out the cash valuation component per share of .06 cents, and for the sake of this exercise let?s not include any company assets.

So what do we get???

.27 cents for Whitedam.
.68 cents for CCP.
And .33 cents for blue sky mine potential.

Therefore in this exercise the valuation for Exco is a $1.28. (Is this is what they call the takeover premium or does this need to be included as well). Note almost exactly double to recent trading prices to this week.

Only ingredient left is a buyer, or the market to revalue the stock.

I know this is a very rough exercise and that it might stir up a hornets nest, but I am interested in throwing it to the floor for some constructive discussion, comment, revaluation, that this forum is renowned for in the past.

Regards Aussie