Combining the general topics of insiders buying and the ‘Eck Effect’, I’ve revisited the Negative Volume Index (NVI) analysis of recent share price movements.
Interpretation of the NVI was described with some links in a 20 December post [#36926079]. Briefly, a rise in the Index when price is falling is interpreted as being due to buying by ‘informed’ or ‘smart’ money. A chart updated to yesterday’s close is shown, and the dates of recent significant events are marked that correspond with NVI movements.
[A] 1 August 2017: Chinese Permit Renewal obtained for distribution from Japan.
15 December 2017: Placement to Dennis Eck to become the largest shareholder.
[*][C] 26 March 2018: Appointment of Eck as Director announced.
[*][D] 31 July 2018: Major Placement and SPP announced.
[*][E] 6 August 2018: Tranche 1 of Placement allotted to SIs and instos.
[*][F] 12 September 2018: Tranche 2 of Placement allotted.
[*][G] 2 November 2018: IKON legal judgement released.
[*][H] 30 November 2018: Japan QVC Million Dollar Day occurs ($1.1M sales announced 12 December).
Up until point [A] the NVI has been in slow decline giving no real indication of ‘smart’ money involvement. Point [C] is significant in that there is a general upward movement of the Index from then on, and there is a particularly pronounced divergence between NVI and price over the last couple of months that would fit a general shakeout of uncommitted holders selling to instos.
It should be remembered that these analyses are always restricted to price data released for the ‘lit’ ASX market only. What transactions are occurring in the background in dark pools is anyone’s guess. As I have pointed out before, small sells on the ASX coupled with larger buys in the dark would be a very ‘smart’ way to accumulate at low prices.
(P.S. The numbering in the above list is the result of HC automatic formatting)
CDY Price at posting:
19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
