I am honoured to finally become a stooge, thanks Touquoy, not quite sure what has earnt me that title but I shall roll with it.
I actually enjoy your posts, whilst I read them with a pinch of salt it is good to remind myself of the upside
as we endure this long dark period. At the same time I have not seen any major pearls of wisdom that warrant you to question my or anyone else's intellect on this forum. But what would I know, I am just a stooge.
Prufrock, I would think it is safe to make this assumption, the Co have clearly stated to be in preliminary talks with various banks etc before titles were relinquished. As for reading into what is going on post Higgins and speculating what will eventuate, your guess is good as anybody elses' who is not privy to company information.
I must admit, one significant concern weighing upon my optimism is the fact they are still trying to flog 3c shares which does not inspire confidence that we will see a near term announcement to the market confirming competitive 100% debt finance.
You are correct, one month has crept up and still no news regarding positive discussions with financiers, which I am sure all of us were secretly hoping for. Accordingly I believe it must be proving a challenge to find finance acceptable to ATV, which provides an inclination that ATV are either;
1. shopping around,
2. have only very expensive funding available (>20% interest on a gold loan), or;
3. yet to find any available funding.
My guess is we are curretnly at number 2. As far as where we will end up, I think it is important to note that the main decision does not lie with ATV but with Mr Financier. ATV will bend over and take what ATV can get, we cannot afford to wait and ride it out. Accordingly I am residing in the comfort that with project economics of Touquoy, '2' will still value the SP above 20c on a risked NPV basis. Anything better is a bonus.
As far as timing goes, ATV has limited negotiating leverage
in the current financial environment (aside from a very low Opex project). Accordingly, the level of cash on hand will act as a catalyst to force action in some form in the not too distant future. An estimated date? Well I have learnt to expect nothing to soon, ie await the quarterly for an indication and consider anything in the meantime as a bonus.
I will also add that I am dissappointed nothing has eventuated sooner on the finance side. Mgmt have had a year to get the ball rolling and have this squared away once ATV had clear title to the project. I think it would alleviate a number of investor concern if they clarified the availability of debt to the market. We will await the quarterly for an explanation.
Before worrying too much that it wont get off the ground, I am resonable confident ATV will find a package that at least constitutes '2'. Hedge funds and commodity traders/merchants be after tangible long gold exposure and can earn interest on the money as a bonus through a gold loan.
KPNG, I agree with you regarding money wasted on promotional activities, it is against my business morality which follows an school approach in looking for undervalued assets, develop and let the results do the talking. However unfortunately, without something to boost the SP we wont get the opportunity to develop that undervalued asset.
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