@sci9249 - Vale had to call a force majeure on deliveries. Over...

@sci9249 - Vale had to call a force majeure on deliveries. Over the years whenever this has happened it is usually only a short term market hiccup as other companies have been able to fill the shortage caused by delivery problems. However, this disaster was so serious that I feel it could change the future of all mining and we may decide that we are not going to allow such blatant destruction of whole areas such as happened on this occasion. Vale are already facing the courts. So I think the effect is going to be longer term - not so much a shortage of supplies as we see the other major miners more than happy to fill the breach but more a change to mining practices. Have you ever flown over the Hunter Valley - got caught in a holding pattern on a flight on one occasion and circling that area is enough to make anyone want a change.

Offsetting this is the change of government in Brazil. I don't think they will want too much of a cut in exports as they start to try and rebuild their infrastructure.

And then when we look at the iron ore futures, the April contract closed last night at $85.43. One year out they are $74 so the market is suggesting that supply problems won't be longer term.

I think I have managed to go around a full circle there....