I couldn't (can't) get a spy into the CRU Cu conference in Santiago starting Monday.
The one I did get one into was the one in London and he basically backs up what is being said on Cu demand in that slide
Plus the detail in the McKinsey report.
2018 likely to remain a deficit year
Highlights March 2018
Global copper demand is expected to reach 24 million tonnes in 2017, increasing to 24.6 million tonnes in 2018—and then growing by 2.9 percent to 31.1 million tonnes by 2026. In China, investment in electrical and electronic equipment—including electric vehicles will lead to a demand increase of 3.7 percent per annum through to 2026
Supply in 2018 will rebound, with ramp-ups, restarts, and recoveries taking place at several mines across the world. After a total annual supply decline of 1.3 percent year-on-year in 2017 compared with 2016, total supply will jump 4 percent in 2018 assuming a “normal” disruption factor of 7 percent.
Longer term, supply is expected to slow, and peak at 22.3 million tonnes in 2024, assuming the current lack of probable projects in the pipeline
This increase in supply, along with only a slight decline in total scrap volume in 2018, will not be enough to keep the market out of a deficit of 71 thousand tonnes. This view of a slight deficit is at risk of exacerbation due to potential labor and political disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), as well as the Chinese ban on dirty scrap imports
To prevent longer-term, large-scale deficits, several projects in the MineSpans high case (that is, mines that we consider as only as “possible” in terms of likelihood at this stage) will need firmer financial backing within the next few months.
All participants appear to be singing from the same hymn sheet. Which builds my confidence,
necessary for the medium long term play that is Cassini. (I did warn about the current turbulence as well).
CZI Price at posting:
6.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held