there is a fourth scenario where the lenders increase the 100m...

there is a fourth scenario where the lenders increase the 100m substantially to say 200-300 million to get the deal across and save liquidation. This scenario could be possible if the restructure went to shareholders vote which would change the dynamics for sure. Then nothing is certain and everyone could lose in which case some of the power is moved away from the hedge funds who are sitting nicely at the moment having bought the debt at a discount.