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Orwell

1,751 Posts.

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17/10/17

13:16

Post #: 27964140
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Originally posted by Orwell ↑

A bit of uncertainty for me on BHP now. First glance it looks like an uptrend but I'm not convinced.

As price travelled up from it's $14 lows of Jan 2016, there was a critical level of $22.65 which I was tracking it against. It broke up through this with some momentum, then was always going to retrace to that level and bounce, which occurred in June 2017.

The move up since June 2017 meets my definition of a counter-trend. That is, the main trend in still down and this move since then remains just a bounce. I won't be convinced that a new uptrend has formed until it breaks the two prior peaks and $28. It might go on with it, but I want more confirmation.

The other macro issue for BHP is China with their leadership conference occurring at the moment. Hard to know what's been propped up economically in the lead up, versus China economics post the conference. Lot's of risk around at the moment with US markets topping, USD, China.

Expand

There's an interesting chart about half way through the linked article below, showing China MSCI index voltility compresses in the lead up to past China leadership conferences and then expands in the 12mths after. Relevant to thinking about BHP share price.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...est-political-event-chinas-19th-party-congres

XMD Value at posting: 6,391.3
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