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23/08/17
17:32
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Originally posted by Orwell
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Soccer I dont have my charts with me but I recall Amcor has been in quite a long strong uptrend. A couple of possible reasons why it fell on good news.
There is a normal short term phenomenon of "buy the rumour, sell the fact", that occurs on all stocks which is just an effect of price being bid up in anticipation of an event and then people take profits, so you need to get used to that concept. You can google it for further explanation. If the dividend is good and sustainable then it should recover and go on with it.
The alternative bigger picture answer though is based the need for large funds to get out when they can.
Our market is dominated by fund managers, particularly with large cap stocks. They are too big to trade in and out without moving the price on themselves. So they value a company and form a view on its medium to long term outlook. They then need to build a position at generally depressed prices and hold on until the valuations are peaking. To get out they really need an event or news to sell into to create sufficient liquidity so they dont collapse the price.
The ideal time for a fund to exit is when media headlines are singing the praises of some company results.
Amcor falling could be a sign that the up trend is near the end of its run, or at least one or more large funds have got enough out of the move and are selling down into good news.
I remember succesfully shorting MQG in mid 2015 when the media was estactic with results but technically the price was in a rising wedge for months showing distribution by fund managers.
Jesse Livermore discussed this concept in Reminisces of a Stock Operator back in the 1930s. You should read that book if you havent already.
I'll have a look at Amcor for a short position if this is more than just a blip.
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Hi Orwell,
Many thanks for your detailed reply. It does make sense especially the way Funds use the best opportunity they have to take profits.
I have read Jesse Livermore's book and do recall his explanation for getting out on Big news, either when he had shorted a stock or when he was long.
The dividend is quite good and I suspect the price will be supported till the 4th. I'll close my options as soon as I see a chance over the next week or so.
Cheers Orwell and thanks again,
soccer