XMD 1.35% 10,441 s&p/asx midcap 50

The Big Boys, page-858

  1. 1,751 Posts.
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    Captain it's an interesting technical problem here as the history of the chart doesn't provide enough information to make confident calls. I'll give an opinion but it's in large part gut feel as a trader. Essentially its a hold but with a negative bias. I want to see this play out a little more, at least see how this week finishes. I wouldn't sell today, but I'd probably sell in coming weeks if it gets a bounce.

    If this week remains an inside bar, particularly if the open-close remains within last weeks open-close to form a bullish harami, it should get some support coming in next week. That's what I'd be looking at next few days.

    Zooming out to the Monthly chart, you can see a clear double top. That's a pretty negative pattern that you want to see resolved in some way, which it hasn't yet. So from the Sept 2016 high you'd ideally see a downtrend, then form a base, then start building again. This instead fell sharply, bounced and faded since. That's not good. It doesn't yet look like it's formed a bottom.

    Alternatively, it opened at $2.10 in July 2014 and has come back to test that on multiple occassions. It a really strong level around $2 and just above. Obviously everyone will have stops around current levels. Your danger is that if it drops a little lower then the selling will accelerate below $2.10 and $2.00. But if you think about that, and the likelihood that everyone is nervously watching this level with their stops ready, makes me think this stock hasn't resolved it's low yet. It really needs at some point to smash all the stops around current levels to finally clean that out and find a base below $2 at a point where everyone knows the base is in and will confidently start building positions. The fact you made the post you have and are unsure of it technically is evidence of this, that the low hasn't been resolved.

    So, I think you'll get your initial bounce, but I'd be watching daily ensure that a harami or similar pattern forms ok. Then from next week I'd be watching the weekly chart for signs of any further weakness and bail early if it's not holding.

    Given you only bought in Feb, if you get a chance to get out around breakeven, I'd probably stand aside anyway and come back in a few months at a safer point, even if I had to buy at higher levels.
 
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