Just having a look at TLT Captain. I was surprised to see that...

Just having a look at TLT Captain. I was surprised to see that i've put some markings on this chart previously, I must have discussed it with you before but can't recall. At the moment their is no discernable Elliott Wave. It's basically been climbing up in an exponential curve with a series of increasing gradient trend lines. On the weekly the last of these trend lines have broken down, but the uptrend could re-establish, so it's mainly a question now of where it might find support.

I'm not sure it's valid to analyse this the same as a stock, due to interest rate settings maybe being less discretionary than a stock price and more anchored in reference to a Fed rate within a range.

To the extent is does float freely, the best way to assess it at this point is simply support and resistance levels to see where the fall might pause. I ran through levels of the various prior ranges and there is a cluster of support around current levels about 132-133. Below that your 127-128 is also a reasonable support level, 120 below that.

But I don't know the chart and product well enough to start making judgements about this. I like the current support at 132-133 or 38.2% retrace of major prior range if I had to make a call where it will hold shorter term.