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Orwell

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28/07/16

22:12

Post #: 18393330
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Originally posted by Orwell ↑

@CaptainGrumpy, I saw your comment on shorting BHP today so thought I would update my BHP chart I posted on 9th Dec 2015. It's playing out in a fairly predictable way, although with a lot of weekly volatility.

In my initial post I discussed that once price falls through its ATH50% level, in this case $22.65, it carries on down with momentum and then will reverse back up to about ATH50%, before finally falling to the ATH25% level.

The inital level of fall is not quite predictable. I thought it would get support at the $17.30 line and turn back up around that. It paused there, but then extended the fall to the next support at $14 before it then it turned up. This is point 3 on the charts.

We are on our way back up to ATH$22.65, which looks like hitting in May but could still stay up there for June and July. This is point 4 in the charts.

Have a look at what happened in 2006 on the way up through the $22.65 level as highlighted in purple shading. It punched through the level by 29%, spent 8 months coming back to the level and slightly below it, then went on to All Time highs. Same thing in reverse.

Initial Chart from 9th Dec 2016
View attachment 173521

Current Chart.
View attachment 173522

Expand

Updated my BHP Monthly chart below. Refer linked posts for previous charts in Dec 2015 and April 2016.

BHP should peak at Point 4 within the next two months as it comes up to Orange Down trend line and reverses. Target $11.30.
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The Big Boys, page-648

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