All good Snout, certainly agree with parts of what you are saying, however I'm still taking a short bias (albeit not invested as such just yet).
Gold has me worried. When was the last person you spoke to that wasn't bullish? Every punter seems to have jumped on, but the punters don't have the final say (remember early 2011 when gold was a dinner party conversation?) A lot of this recent move has been on the back of Yen. Yen however hasn't been bought for safehaven reasons (January aside) it's been an unwinding of hedged Japanese equity longs. Carry trade also being unwound. I think the punters may have jumped on the gold train too early if expecting the bottom in and not just trading the trade.
Don't get me wrong, I've ridden this rally all the way from late Dec (http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/16748794/single), I'm just happy now to take some off the table and let the next move confirm. Unfortunately I think it's going to be down and down hard as the new players get squeezed out. As you mentioned, global cost of production still trending down, but that means more downside room for gold price. 1270 the line in the sand for me. Break and hold and i'm long again, but fear that wont happen. Neck on the line i'd say we see a new low in 2016.
Re: oil tend to agree, but that doesn't mean we wont see $30 again. I've said numerous times on here that i expect oil to be range bound $30-60 as far as the eye can see due to shale on/off. I took out my biggest long position of the year on 13 Jan (http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/16784466/single) so i'm more than familiar with the in's and outs of this rally with how closely i've followed it. Rode it up to 36, then tapped out on a fundamental shift and running into overhead resistance. Left a fair bit on the table in hindsight, but I think it's risky froth to be honest (I feel the same about I/O now). OPEC meeting over weekend will sort out the next month or so. Deal and crude to 60, no deal and back to 30. If does get to 60, short it till your nose bleeds as fundamentally nothing will have changed. Pure lip service.
I/O is buggered in 2016. Steel mills pumping now before their planned closures and that's driven China's good data (released y'day) + I/O price this quarter. Shipping numbers up big, production still ramping up at Roy Hill and S11D still to come online. (massive vol $10/t) There will be a cliff dive soon. Trailing stops a must for your BHP long IMO.
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