Thanks Kirolos, glad the posts are appreciated. Origin ORG long is currently my biggest open position so I’m certainly positive on the stock.
Firstly, going back a few weeks I decided I wanted exposure to a recovering oil market. ORG seems to be the quality selection on fundamentals with good assets, a retail energy business to support near term cashflows and credible management. I’m not the FA expert on this stock but there are some very good analysts around HC. @Value_Hunter in particular has been excellent. So you should review some of this work, but the FA background appears positive.
As for the chart I’ve just posted the monthly below which summarises everything you need to know for the moment.
The bottom looks to be in. Based on: Elliott Wave (with 5 subwaves down completing Wave C), Price levels of the All Time High (25% has been reached); Natural Support levels; a break of the down Trend Line on the Weekly chart; a higher low put in on the Weekly; 161.8% Price extension from the prior peak hit. Of course it could still reverse and go lower, particularly when it’s tied to an underlying commodity that could drag it back, but seems unlikely.
So, it’s fairly safe to say that the downtrend is complete. What we don’t know is what the uptrend will look like, how it will unfold. That’s the uncertainty.
So far it’s had a strong bounce. The rate at which it climbs back up versus sideways drift is normally referenced as each new low on the weekly chart is progressively formed, but we don’t have that information yet.
When it reverses and pulls back from its current move, it will likely do so at horizontal resistance levels. The monthly shows the main two, being $5.57 and after that $6.39. It’s probably got enough momentum now to get to the higher level, but it’s a guess at this point. So I’ve just marked that range with a pink shaded box. I also marked a nominal trend line in pink as a reference to easily see whether its momentum is holding or slowing. That line is arbitrary and based on the slope of a previous rise to the left where it’s copied from. Neither of these are strong references, just rough guides only.
The main risk I’ve been concerned about is the US markets and I’ve held some cash back until I see how this week opens. I’ll be far more comfortable once the Dow Jones pulls back and puts in another higher low to build from.
I entered my Org position early last week. I’ve been reviewing its chart and price action this morning with a view to adding to my position. I’ve decided there’s not enough left in this initial move vs risks to justify adding, based on the way I trade with leverage. You may have a different view if setting up a longer term hold and buying shares outright. It’s noticeable that it hasn’t been as strong this morning as its peers, so there might be some selling into strength.
Summary: The downtrend appears over. Org looks very good medium term. Just need caution on any near term entry. If a longer term hold, then I’d probably just buy it anyway rather than trying to refine the entry.
(20min delay)
