I've been a bit complacent about market direction the past couple of weeks as I've focused on individual stocks, so spending some time today going back over charts and checking my perspective remains valid. A review of my post of 28th August in this thread on the XJO as linked may interest some. I've reposted the monthly chart below and the update to today.
You can see I was expecting that a Wave B top was in, that we'd bounce off the 50% level of the prior major down range for either 3 or 9 weeks and then fall into a bear market, marked out in Red dotted line. The updated chart below shows that we got a 9 week bounce, then it fell below that 50% level. It's tracking that prediction perfectly. I got bullish on the market a couple of weeks ago after reviewing the Dow, but our market is just tracking down a very predictable bear path.
The main change I've made to my XJO chart is to add that light blue zone at 4200 as a target. I've explained this in some other previous posts on the XJO yearly charts.
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To drill down to some detail I've posted the XJO Weekly chart below. There is nothing bullish about this. It hasn't been able to get back over that 50% level. It just looks like we've had a two week counter-trend and will now fall away. This chart is only being held up by the Dow Jones, otherwise it's gone.
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