That's interesting to go back and read my previous SAR comments from 7 Dec. I'm actually quite happy with my analysis. 4th Jan when it first closed above $0.61 would have been a good entry. It looks good for a longer run up, but with the volatility of this thing it's hard to buy on a spike. Hopefully it will come back to test $0.61 but will be tricky to trade it.
Have a look at what happened prior to those last two peaks. There's two examples there of what happens when it breaks through the $0.61 level in Oct 2010 and Jul 2011. Both of them would have been hard to trade and get an optimum entry.
If it's correct that its in a Wave 3 (and Elliott Wave is tricky on this stock) then target is maybe $1.55 (quick view), but there are multiple points of resistance at $1.00 and will likely reject that level first time when it gets there. I think I'd just wait for any current pullback then enter on the next weekly green bar and hang on for a wild ride.
General Markets:
I do think last week was a really significant week for markets, confirming the bear and probably good for gold stocks for the next few months.
I was going to repost some of my charts if I get time, but from April last year to December 2015 I was arguing a major bear market was forming. At the end of October I was so convinced of a second leg down to the Augusts falls that I went all in in MQG and XJO Put options.
The market fell for two weeks, but then went into this frustrating sideways pattern. There was the France terror attacks one week, then Thanksgiving week, then the three weeks to the Fed rise where I'm convinced the SPX was manipulated to hold it up, then a couple of weeks of Xmas rally. Markets finally broke down last week and I think it's major and further to go.
Trouble for me was I was progressively forced out of my Put options and I just thought I must have been wrong. I then extended that thinking and did some bottom picks on STO and BHP. Last week I realised I wasn't wrong with my major market analysis, just early, which may as well be the same thing. I closed the STO and BHP long positions last week. I've been trying to get short MQG again but couldn't get a comfortable entry and it's run away from me.
MQG target $70 short term, but then eventually $60. Not sure timing. STO and BHP further further to fall but tricky as good support close on STO. BHP will end up at $11.30 but unlikely to go straight there and I'm no longer sure where the counter-trend will be. So really tricky to trade now that I've missed the start of this break.
Looking for a good bounce in Dow this week and us to follow, but I will be using any rally to reset my shorts and I think plenty of fundies will sell into any rally as well. This is a traders market anyway for the next while, not for setting long term holds.
I'm assuming gold will become the go to safe haven in this environment. Haven't looked at the charts on this.
(20min delay)
