Hi Orwell,
I don't think your analysis is over cooked just yet, more "simmering at the boil".
As a snap shot take a look at the topping pattern for INDU in 1976. Very similar and the retrace punched slightly through your 78.6 level then reversed. Still time yet. I know this is looking at the topping pattern in isolation but there it is.
I'm watching to see what happens around the 7th and 11th November.
The Big Boys, page-346
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