I reckon, if it is going to fail, it will be at the current level.
(I posted the daily ES chart with horizontal SR last week)
and on the weekly, price is making an attempt to recover its place back within the old longer term trend channel.
and here is the corresponding ES (futures) chart, closer up-
.
That said, there is some potential accumulation in the background, and a lot of the so called 'experts' are suggesting price will fail soon, and are purveying a doom and gloom scenario, so the contrarian in me can't see the markets doing what too many are suggesting.
Have a look at the DJIA Monthly (because it has volume and the correlation to the SPX is ~96%), on the last two completed months, volume was pretty much the same (.02 different). And on the first month price brokedown easily with a widespread, but closed well off its lows (suggesting support came in at the lows). Then with about the same volume on the next bar (last month - September), spread narrowed considerably and price did not slice lower at all. There was no lower low and price appears to be consolidating off of the previous lows, mopping up the supply that remained. Then this month price has accelerated higher on what appears will be reduced volume (with still a week to go). If that all turns out to be the case, it will show a temporary supply vacuum may have been formed, which allowed price to push higher in the face of a lack of selling pressure.
(also note how similar the monthly bars are to mid/late 2011 )
and the monthly ES in comparison, is suggesting a similar story.......
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