Hi Jako. I was getting quite bearish short term DXY until last...

Hi Jako.

I was getting quite bearish short term DXY until last night. I had it pegged for a move (very much temporarily) to either 92, or 89.5. Momentum may still take it lower, but fundamentally I'm thinking we should bounce here. US inflation and jobs data overnight, might be showing us that some of the reading in Aug/Sept were an anomaly. Looking at the data over a full year shows the US in pretty good shape. Other than overseas risk, I can't see any reason for Fed to hold on a rate hike this calendar year. That would be completely out of synch with market expectations of late, so it could lead to a sharp DXY rally . If Asian markets remain stable over next few weeks i expect a hawkish Fed on 29 Oct.

cheers