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23/09/15
23:11
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Originally posted by pisces
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There's some really interesting issues raised here actually . If I really like a stock I always check out the chart and if I want to go in hard I always get someone that I know is good to check out the chart . Now here's the interesting point.
I would rate my charting skills as slightly above zero but I have my own crude methodology and it's incredible how often I can get it right chartwise . The chartist will say to me much later how did you work that out . Yet perversely I really believe that if I tried to increase my charting abilities I wouldn't be any good at it ,because it's not my passion . I'm better at it being less technically skilled . That's not at all meant to be conceited ,or downgrade the skills of chartists because I respect the good ones immeasurably ,I just don't have that ability .
The answer to all that is a pineapple ,but I've seen something similar in all walks in life ,the more complicated you make something the more likely you are to make mistakes unless you are extremely skilled and meticulous in the execution .I always remember Greg Norman playing the last round with Olazabal in the Masters after Norman had been the No 1 player in the world for about 5 years and failed at the final hurdle so often after everything that could happen to anyone happened to him . Olazabal won of course just playing par golf and Norman said something along the lines of ,I looked at how he did it and I kept thinking it's that easy . How can it be so easy.
So the point of all that is that sometimes ,and in markets particularly ,if you make things hard for yourself to interpret or execute ,it will end up being hard .
If you have skills or a passion in a certain aspect of the market you should trust yourself and your own evaluations and not get overawed because you don't think you can't cover all the bases . I don't think that there's any one way of being successful but you do need enough confidence to go in with whatever skills or basis you have.
So to get back to the topic I don't believe you have to be outstanding at one or the other or both ,you just need to have a clear idea of who you are and the confidence to act when an opportunity presents.
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Sounds fair to me. I would also add, any measure of relative success/failure with a personal investment system needs to include both bull and bear cycles, i.e. having held well before the GFC, during and after - so probably a decade. It's only then that you can truly put your system to the test (which, may involve stepping-out of the market altogether if that's your thing) to discover if it's genuinely a blueprint to getting wealthy from the market; although I realise "wealthy" is a relative term, as is "success".