Interestingly though, Bull or Bear, how much of our portfolios does it really impact in terms of portfolio positioning and rebalancing? Ok. If things go downhill we all sell most of our really high beta stuff, the nanos, the shells, the pure specs. But who's really going to sell quality businesses that have the runs on the board, just because the market at a point in time says it's worth this - not that!? Not to mention the CGT implications of selling a bunch of investment that have gone up 1-10x since your initial purchase, just so you can try and time an entry down the track. Complete mug's game imo.
It's funny, like many, I talk about the macro picture, economics etc but i have to concede, it's much more likely that it stems from having a deep interest in those topics, rather than it helpig me actually make money. If it was just about making money, the best thing anyone could do would be devote that time to other endevours, like searching for quality businesses that will keep paying you an income, even if the market goes into Bear territory. You can pretty much guarantee these companies will still be going strong when market sentiment decides that everything's fine and we don't need to be in a Bear market any longer and the talking heads start exclaiming how low PEs are again.
(20min delay)
