You might also like some input on this question from
@gj0201 &
@sharks37 as well CG.
DX Futures Monthly
FWIW, on a monthly timeframe the March bar (arrowed) had very very high volume (possibly like the highest ever),
and it closed the month well off its high, then the April bar closed lower, hmmm.
The suspicion here is that March was climactic, and leaves potential weakness in the background of the chart.
Then both the May and June bars both inferred that the Index was attempting to consolidate after the March weakness.
Following that, the July bar (arrowed) had a decent opportunity to again push strongly higher, after the May & June consolidation.
However, volume dropped off, the bar remained relatively narrow, and suggested a lack of demand,
which was confirmed by the August bar that closed lower.
View attachment 95595
Then switching to smaller timeframe with the wave chart, to attempt to look inside the recent price action.
Firstly, the 643K downwave showed the highest supply on a downwave, since price brokeout from the earlier lows.
The most interesting thing following that, is the 711K up wave, which reasonably should have made much more ground higher, and was followed by a low volume upwave (lack of demand). The chart is saying here that it met selling pressure on the 711K upwave, shown by the relatively shallow angle of incline, along with the lack of upside ground made, with the decent volume behind it.
Price has since pulled back and continues to find support across 93.35 (although if all this is correct, it may be that price is actually being held up at this level, while long positions continue to be sold, and short positions are being set)....we'll see......
This wave chart is constructed from daily closing bars, with a minimum of 70,000 contracts per bar, (which ends with it being a 2-3 day timeframe, across the entire chart). The wave size (or reversal) is 0.75 , and the volume numbers are shown in 1,000's.
View attachment 95599
So in a nutshell, there is potentially strong weakness is the background of the DX Monthly chart, & confirmation of this potential weakness seen on (both) charts would come with a clean & clear break below 92.30 (and preferably after price is then rejected at this level from below).
And this analysis would probably be void, with a fresh push higher and strong monthly close back above 97.74
.
View attachment 95598
(20min delay)
