Hi Pilsner, thanks for the post. It’s good to see someone...

Hi Pilsner, thanks for the post. It’s good to see someone looking at the big picture and working in monthly charts and then down to weekly level. Too many on Hotcopper muck around with the daily and even hourly charts, to their detriment in my view.

I couldn’t quite work out the basis of how you formed the waves and determined 4300 from your first chart. It looks like you might be working from the moving average in yellow for the level and possibly some average pricing for the black lines rather than price points. Your weekly chart takes your black line down further to make the 4300 level, so slightly different from your monthly. Nevertheless the concept of cycles is valid and I have no problem using a bit of license to make some judgements on the market since the GFC lows. I think all traders anyway should be working to a big picture road map even if using more judgement/art than precision, and then trading around that as shorter term opportunities arise.

I note your response in further posts that you’re not working to Elliot Wave. Nevertheless you are looking at 5 waves up and so it has parallels to the EW pattern in my charts above. That was the dilemma for me, as to whether we are heading into a fourth wave down and then fifth wave to a final peak as you’ve shown. Intuitively I agree with this, but the pattern for me over the same timeframe since 2009 just looks more like a Wave B (Three sub-waves up) then Wave C bear market and I’ve struggled to come around to that view, but that’s what the chart pattern is saying to me.

The thing is we both agree the next few months is likely down, and in three sub-waves. After that comes the key turning point: recovery and Xmas rally into your last wave up, or it keeps sliding as per my conclusions above.

We’ll see. Regards.