can remember the original post and am impressed at how well you...

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vindin

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20/08/15

21:51

Post #: 15846422
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Originally posted by Orwell ↑

I did a detailed technical commentary on Monadelphous (MND) on 19th April this year and thought I'd do an update. First chart is copied from my post in April and second chart is the current position.

My previous assessment from 19th April:
"Technical Conclusion: This is going lower. At least one more leg down to $7.00 around July 15 is a reasonable expectation. Could still go another leg down after that but I want more information before calling this, bottoms are too uncertain to pick precisely anyway and can make you look a bit foolish, but the drop to at least $7 looks a pretty safe call.

Whenever it ends, after more than two years down, it will want 6 months to a year sideways action to build a base before any uptrend, i.e. maybe the end of the year might be worth a look again, but you want it to prove it’s in a new uptrend before entering."

We've now hit $7 on the 19th August and dropped below. This is a really strong level so I’ve been expecting it to hold about here and a bit of wiggle room is fine on a large scale view, but gee the stock looks weak. So not really sure the bottom, but even if it drops further the $7 level should still influence. i.e. bounce around a bit lower but still consolidate about here. I now think this is the last leg down anyway to complete Wave C.

The more important point is that when it finds it’s level, it’s going to need to move sideways for a while to build a base. Minimum condition for a long entry is to break the downtrend line (solid orange) before an uptrend can be confirmed. I previously thought 6mths plus to build a base. At this point it looks like 4mths and end of year at least to break the orange line marked. Presumably it will punch through and then retrace and consolidate.

So worth watching it unfold, but early in the new year (Jan/Feb) is probably the next point at which a safe long position could be established, once it’s broken the monthly orange downtrend line.

Monthly Chart from 19th April 2015:

View attachment 88798
View attachment 88797

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can remember the original post and am impressed at how well you called it ...will be making a note in my diary to revisit at end of year!

XMD Value at posting: 4,889.9
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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