That $6bn TenderBook...

Just been thinking about that $6bn tender book, thought I'd share.

They didn't give the tender book before 2011. Work was a bit shorter term back then - I used a historical ratio of around 40% between next year's revenue and this year's order book before then as a guess.

My feeling is that the tender book becomes less reliable as work shrinks because companies drag their heels and maybe  finally shelve projects. On the way up it's probably a better leading indicator. I also think the way companies tender is unlikely to substantially change over time but Goldings complicates this a bit.

I think I'd be saying we are in Hold territory coming to $1.50 based on simple FY1 EPS of 15c now. I've been ignoring this up to now because we were so clearly undervalued. However, having considered it I'm going to keep 'Buy' because of this chart - that potential has to be valued at something. I'll give it +20% on the value so $1.80 - might prove to be hubris but on balance seems like a bet worth taking based on NRW's track record.

Will take some patience well into 2018 I'd say for the big projects to get the final sign off and NRW to hopefully land something.

Any thoughts about this logic/wishful thinking?!