1. 231,975,001 million shares & options currently on issue, which include:
(a) 60,850,001 issued shares (b) 18,300,000 new shares to be issued for $15m cap raising (c) 40,000,000 potential performance shares for phosphate (d) 20,000,000 shares for potash acquisition (e) 80,000,000 potential performance shares for 200Mt potash resource at minimum grade 10% KCI (f) assorted options worth $4.4m (8) $23m in cash equivalents
2. low grade phosphate, grades 10% to 14%, which need triple benefaction to 30%. one project is near rail and another is 65km by road to port. the opex will be fairly large here due benefication and road transport
3. low grade potash, with initial target resource potential of 0.7-1.5 billion tonnes of carnallite at 12% KCl grade. opex $130/t plus transport. compare to TRH Hatch Point has an exploration target of 1,688Mt at 34.3% KCI. AGR have mentioned capex of $850m but for 1.2mtpa this is too low. Capex is probably $1.3b for 1.3mtpa. Depth to 1,700m. I struggle to see how AGR will meet those opex forecasts with such low grade.
4. In summary, AGR grades are 1/3 TRH grades. AGR have transport cost advantage but not opex advantage. CAPEX/t will be the same as TRH as depths are similar. Given AGR land has been drilled already by oil companies with 300 holes, the 200mt performance criteria will be easily met. So the current AGR market cap at 80 cents is $185m or $162m less cash equivalents. TRH is $30m market cap less cash equivalents.
Unless I have misread something, AGR looks crazy!!!
Good luck
Potash bed #18 at Hatch Point has an exploration target of 1,688Mt at 34.3% KCI
TRH Price at posting:
62.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
