Future harvest yield is not as murky as it seems, but you have...

Future harvest yield is not as murky as it seems, but you have to divide into into two parts.

The plantations located in the Ord are a fairly know quantity now. Early harvests have been chiefly impacted by high tree mortality, which has been largely solved for later Ord based projects. Heartwood and oil yields were low by comparison as well, but not as great an impact as surviving stocking rates. Trial harvest data has been solid. These sites which have trees <10yrs old or so all look pretty good to me on the occasions I have visited them (several visits up to and including 2013). The older sites can be a bit spotty and TFC freely acknowledge that.

However, I believe that there is a question mark over future yields from the NT and QLD sites. These are unproven and while indications look positive, I'm expecting teething problems may arise there.

The bigger question in my mind is product price. Despite a current supply/demand imbalance, supply is going to ramp up significantly from 2024. How much this moves the scales is difficult to tell, but its an issue to be addressed and TFC know it.

What this translates into as a SP I think depends on your time horizon. We can argue that TFC is potentially evolving into an integrated pharmaceutical company. Tough to value. I'm in at ~$1.60 atm and might seek to top up if softness persists. Based on what we know currently, I think you could argue that a value up to $2 is not out of line, but the unpredictability of the quantum of cashflows makes this difficult. Agricultural and market variables are many and variable!