I picked up on the pattern a little while back but haven't been...

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Tucky91

26 Posts.

16/12/16

14:04

Post #: 21392741
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Originally posted by Lies&damnlies ↑

City

I agree with the regular effect you point out. Have a look at this one concerning TFC.

Chart TFC, for the following periods 15th Oct - 15 March for each year 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16.
Its a regular high- low- high swing like clockwork. Check out the dates and prices of the low points they are:
low point for 2013-14 , Feb 17th at 1.06
low point for 2014-15 , Feb 12th at 1.28
low point for 2015-16 , Feb 12th at 1.11
Freaky!!! suspected to low point date for 2016-17 Between Feb 11-18. Why fight the trend.

Lets look at the High - low -high swings for TFC for the period 15th Oct - March 15 for each year
* 2013-14 High 1.25 Low 1.06 High 1.88.
* 2014-15 High 1.65 Low 1.28 High 1.84.
* 2015-16 High 1.77 Low 1.11 High 1.80.

This is not rocket science. So far this year 2016-17 we have a high of 1.70 for the beginning period. I think we still the fifth E-wave to the top of ICH (intermediate cycle high) Fib suggest 1.75-1.83 to the end of Dec. Sounds fair enough to me.
Followed by a ICL (intermediate cycle low) sometime between 11-18 Feb. A pure guesstimate of the low price 1.3x to 1.4x
The followed to a ICH before the 15th of March to 1.8x . Its got into the 1.80s for the last three years.

Does it have to follow the same pattern this year. Of course not, black swan events do happen. but in the absence of any other guide why fight such a regular trend.

By pointing this effect out could my making people aware of it change it? I don't know how widely this site is read, so I have no idea.

cheers Lies

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I picked up on the pattern a little while back but haven't been game/comfortably funded to try to play it. I think it is a good LT stock with good opportunities, but the swings are very annoying and definitely make me question my investment!

TFC Price at posting: $1.68 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add TFC (ASX) to my watchlist

I picked up on the pattern a little while back but haven't been...

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