mssf:I think there's a lot in what you say, I offer two points,...

mssf:

I think there's a lot in what you say, I offer two points, one agreeing, two disagreeing.

Firstly, reports of heavy stockpiling in China. (I think I saw this in the SMH yesterday). The article points out: China dumping copper would be a clear sign of this.

Secondly, the argument in the back page of the Fin today says that large parts of China still have a lot of room to modernise, and that China still has plenty of room to pump prime the local economy, real estate issues and the like notwithstanding.

Thirdly, a lot of the issues with BHP are due to BHP, not Europe, China or anything else. I've already forgotten where I read this toom sorry (I'm good for factoids but lousy on attribution). I think the point is: investors are complaining that BHP have busted at least 40 billion on incompetence, busting another 80 billion would be a bad idea, and the state of the economy is a very useful excuse.

Nonetheless, modelling IOH's value at 80c or 100c spot iron ore price would be a useful excercise.... It would take the wind out of the FMG deal, surely.