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Hi Hunter1--ERG BIR DVT Hi Ian, I go on other peoples analysis such as yourself as much as mine---Jon 1 told me about Burswood at 82c--but then Ive always known Kerry Packer will take it over----it is a logical move on his part---------read Jon1's recent post in which he states RR said to one client with a 200.000 dollar portfolio--to put 80.000 with Burswood----now to say something like that to another person exudes a lot of confidence--it is not something you say lightly to someone>>>its not my analysis it is Rene Rivkins analysis--I met Jon (I havent met him in person) (yet I'm sure I will one day) through the BB's on Stockhouse in the year 2000--he said he was going to short Davnet and to look out--many people ignored him--he posted the exact prices DVT would fall to--before they happened--with Nasdaq tanking it day after day--I figured after seven days of going down Jon was right and I sold--LOL--his next suggestion was Woolies at 4--but then he was only bullish to 5--even I thought 5 was about right for Woolies---I did not think two years later it would be where it is today.
So anyway---if I get very boring on the stockmarket and think safety first and think of yield plays--and good safe stuff, I find Jon and myself will often agree--sometimes we won't--for I also like growth stuff--and without speaking on his behalf---I wouldf think he is more of a value person than growth--so anyway if you look at Rene Rivkins fundamental analysis of Burswood---it looks good--even RR himself say's it is boring-but note as the months go by--it keeps getting a tad higher-it will get over a dollars soon in my book then 1.10 then 1.20--I believe net asste backing (someone posted this) is between 1.20 to 1.50--so it looks good safety and reward wise for a patient person.
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With ERG>>once again Jon comes into it--when it was trading at (actually my memory is stretched)-he phoned me from his institutional dealers desk in London--and he said watch out for those rampers on the BB---its coming right down---he then turned to a person behind him and said--get a chart up on ERG will you?--give me the price on it in six months time (this was when it was 2 to 3 dollars)(around those levels)--Jon was bang on with his analysis--he did the same with Intellect--I hope Jon doesn't mind me saying this--cause he tends to get stuck in to you. (lol)
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Anyway the analysis from me currently is (and Ive met top twenty shareholders in ERG before) without revealing who (I'm not allowed to by legals)(lol--BB politics)(has nothing to do with the stockmarket--but there you go) not on a day by day basis--I don't want any of that Hotcopper stuff--its all ego centric--yippeee I got Tesday Wednesday right--kind of stuff-----I'm talking in the investment sense-----my belief is based on research--that the company is recovering--further cost savings in August/September---tax selling for around two to three weeks--support at 30 to 32 33--then when all that is over moving up to more like 46 to 52c----if and I'm confident that P Fog--will release better than expected financials--look what he has done so far?--there is nothing to stop ERG going to 90c--then 1.04 to 1.10 again---miced in with all of that though is the state of the market itself---it is a tech stock--and if the overall market collapses---ERG will go down and so will everything else--LOL--sure you agree--so there is a lot od speculative risk attached to the forecast.
Anyway for tax selling--my belief is it will hold the 30 to 32 33 range----still to come are rumours of an American contract--also resolution to Sydney--all bad news was factored into the stock some months ago---ERG only have to get Sydney--whch I'm confident they will---then there is Brisbane up for grabs---and in my mind it will start to look like the ERG of old--ERG's broker SSMB--value at 1.70-once again I believe that--don't care if everyone laughs at me---I believe that and so do many many others.
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DVT-----totally restructured--new management--running profitably--have followed the progress of the company since late 19999---every single announcement every single thing that has happened>>all on mental database--Ive read every single post done at Stockhouse on it for three years--in the early days we had a whole team of hnest non manipulative people on it--and everyone made money--then some fraudulent--game players playing on peoples emotions stuffed all the analysis up--getting people into defensive positions and introducing emotion into share trading----it was blatantly criminal>>at first I was very tolerant>>.then I got stuck into these people and wrote a few nasty things>>which was exactly what they wanted ofcourse>>>for then they feigned being upset and had enough evidence to get rid of wicked bonkers with the BB admin>>they are stilll doing it today>> when in actual fact--if anyone sues anyone let me assure S\tockhouse I'll have their guts for garters in any court of law>>I'll string then out in the desrt and bankrupt then and drive them into the ground>>they are a disgrace to the investment community>>further the authorities agree with me>>>ASX suveillance does and so does the A.S.I.C.--for I have had private contact with them---and they say the place is foul--LOL.
Anyway back to DVT--the company is high risk speculative--has a lot of shares on issue--directors options are simply at 3c-it runs at a profit-----not a loss--six months ago--it was supposed to go bankrupt--it has not. (its got tax selling to go yet)
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Cheers,--Steve.