I'm really interested in your analysis and am curious as to how...

I'm really interested in your analysis and am curious as to how you arrive at this conclusion.  

Maybe I'm missing something - but the SP has pretty much bounced around the current level for the last 4 weeks.  So from here you are expecting a (approx.) 40%+ drop in the SP.  Is this on the basis of the 'week after week' trend you reference?  Or is it based on something else?

Look forward to any insights you might be able to share.