I think with your chart and all the background info available in these threads (especially JID's 14 bagger post from October) that the case has been made for substantial short term upside in EVG.
This is not based on any expected ANNs although there are a couple due and good news there would be simply an extra bonus.
Being ultra conservative I get an NPV for the current stage of developement of above 30c - I won't tell you what I come up with for my optimistic NPV figure .... but it is quite big ;-)
Macquarrie's $37.5mn ensures the mine will go ahead without diluting shareholders with cap raisings. The current and forecast high price of gold means the financing costs are so small as to be almost unnoticeable.
Don't forget that when this project was originally costed gold was at around US$ 700 - now almost double that.
So, the delays that have beset EVG over the past year on getting the financing in place and dealing with the one annoying minority shareholder (now gone) are a blessing in disguise. During the delay the gold price has shot up so any forwards are now at a much higher price. Also projected revenue is at a much higher level.
EVG is one of those rare cases where the bad news of 1 year ago has turned into extra profit and value now given the high gold price. A bit of alchemy turning bad into good and ultimately into gold.
IMO the best way to benefit from the current gold price is not to buy gold sovereigns, ETFs or even take physical delivery - the best way is to find an undervalued explorer on the verge of becoming a producer, an explorer who has funding in place so no worries about dilution.... and if there are out of the money options available on a stock that is just about to go through the option strike price then go for the leverage and buy the options. You can always sell some options later to fund a purchase of the heads at the strike price making an instant portfolio profit.
If that last paragraph makes sense - then EVGO has to be the way to go.
One final point that has been mentioned by others is that there is not a lot of stock available at the current levels -not many sellers. So we also need to see a price rise for simple market dynamics to come into play. A higher price will attract some sellers to the screen and give the buyers something to acquire ... that will happen very quickly.
I stick my neck out and suggest that sometime very soon this stock will jump substantially on no news and then consolidate at the higher level awaiting developments.
I base this rather rash prediction on my post above earlier posts by me and others (especially JID) and on the fact that Macquarrie's mining analyst team also did their due diligence before agreeing to loan $37.5mn and gave it a thumbs up.
Any chance of us seing Macquarrie on the register soon??
How impermeable are Macquarrie's chinese walls ;-)
Anyway that's my thoughts for today its a Sunday morning here (9 hours behind Sydney) and the sun is out so I will turn my computer off shortly.
At 3pm ... midnight with you - I will be cheering on Mark Webber in Abu Dhabi for the F1 its about time we had another Australian World Champion.
Be happy
EB
EVG Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
