re: i reckon they're a buy - indo perspective
Im an expat up in Indonesia so can give you some idea of country risk. I have not researched HER but will do and give some further feedback if relevant in the Indonesian context.
However some quick notes: 1/ The july election is the first round of presidential elections. If no single majority ticket comes out then there will be a run off in September. Investment decision are pending the outcome in September and I would guesse all things being equal HER will be soft till this time.
2/ The election will almost certainly produce and ex-military man as the president. The consensus It will have a posative impact on the Business and Investment environment for those with natural resource projects.
3/ Recently the greatest project stoppage factor in Indonesia has been resolved. The conflict between forestry and mining departments has been resolved in favour of mining. In other words you can cut down trees to mine without having to duchess the forestry department as well. This conflict has held up major projects for years. For holders of Newcrest expect some action with new gold mine[s] in near future as they have one project that was held up because of this law, I presume now that their exemption has been excepted the mine[s] will proceed. (I hold NCM).
4/ I dont know if it is public yet, or if even it effects the area that HER operate [i will check later] - but martial law restrictions have been lifted in parts of Aceh. The lift apparently done to specifically fast track some projects. Not sure if HER is part of this, but would bode well if so.
5/ If the mine gets up it will be in a high risk area politically - but there are others up there plugging away making bucks so its managable in my opinion.
6/ Finally - expect HER price to fall if there is serious violence at the elections. A 1-5% chance there being so [personal opinion] so factor in accordingly. The smart money is pulling out of Indo right now [witness stockmarket and falling rupiah].
In all I would hold off past July and jump in if all goes well. My plan anyway.
HER Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
