yep - its all about currency shifts crazy. i was saying it was a...

yep - its all about currency shifts crazy.

i was saying it was a sell at $12.60 cos currency looked under threat with US fomc meeting results pending and china looking softer - boq was a particular beneficiary of os 'carry trade' investors who bought in at 11.80s and pushed to 12.80s for the october divvy/

so it was particuarly exposed to currency risk as the OS guys had all their theoetical yield return expunged by a pending currency loss.

It was apparent the buying was OS because the stock actually got sold off from 12.20 down to 11.80 post Aug 8 when company reported its earnings guidance of around $390M - when concensus was for $430

but once we hit today - post FOMC no news is good news - so we knew the US dollar would strenghten tinly but not yet a seismic shift it was time to buy fromt eh 'distressed' OS sellers

BOQ will pay approx 60c divvy in 2 months and that will drive SP back up from here.

SP could possibly have gone as low as 11.80 - that was the pre August 8 low - but it was unlikely given imminence of dividend, the possibility of a special dividend (though i personally dont expect one) - and the facxt that not all the buyer from 11.80 would have been OS.

But investors should bear in mind BOQ has guided to earnings that are a bit sub par in their ' THE CEO must go' asx releases.

So I dont see the stock going to $13+ anymore this FY unless we get serious 'risk on'