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Somehow I think the selling is not over yet.There is an aspect...

  1. cyw
    2,326 Posts.
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    Somehow I think the selling is not over yet.
    There is an aspect of media reports that we need to consider - where did the information come from? Most of the media reports are not done by investigative journalists but the information was 'fed' to the media by regular contributors (mostly brokers, fund managers etc) or influencial figures in the market place.
    If the media (or the information contributors) wants to be positive, they could highlight that it is the exclusive time line that was not met, meaning ABC is now free to talk to other potential buyers and it looks like Bain or other organisations may be interested. Instead they are saying that the MS deal is now in doubt implying there is no other party interested and ABC will be in trouble if the deal falls through.
    As Eddy had confirmed formally that the debt convenants are not share price related and they are not under pressure to refinance in the short term and that child care is still a very much in demand business (I just can't see parents pulling their kids out of ABC just because the share price dropped), there is no hard facts to suggest that the MS deal is critical to the survival of ABC.
    In my opinion, Eddy was quick to jump in bed with MS was to save the share price so that he could have avoided the margin calls. If I remember correctly from his interview, the margin calls were made while Eddy was in the US talking to MS.
    While the news contributors are feeding bad stories to the media, they still want it down, perhaps to load up for the bounce or to make a killing on their shorts or to close out their shorts at rock-bottom prices. At least, CBA and NAB had recently loaded up.
    I am not a stock market wizzard, but I think following the big boys with a small punt should be a pretty safe bet.
 
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