Hello Climate Change,I think it is always best in cirumstances...

Hello Climate Change,

I think it is always best in cirumstances like this to look at the facts and then try and analize outcomes and motives.

I looked at the last few press relases of Iron Mountain. At 31 December 2008, IRM had $4.135 million in cash of which it expected to spend $1.178 during the next quarter, so if this is on track, at the end of March it will have about $2.95 milion in cash. There are 67.7 million shares on issue so the cash backing at the end of March, 2009 will be about 4.4 cps. Its two main projects are the Miarre Proejct in the Pilbara and the Kara North Project in Tasmania. Miare is the most advanced project is a magnetite project which my calculations suggest could contain somewhere between 100Mt to 500Mt of magnetite (this is my estimate IRM have not given a tonnage) at 25 to 30% magnetite. It has an excellent address and is not too far from the sea. However, magnetite projects are capital intensive and are not in favour right now. IRM can earn up to 70% interest by spending the next $3.5 million. The Kara North project is a tin bearing granite project in Tasmania. Grades are up to .22% tin and with tin at say US10k per tonne, gives and in situ value of around A$36 per tonne for the tin. This is too low to be a stand alone operation and the tin would need to be mined along with the magnetite. It's too early to place too much value on this project.

At 31 December 2008 TMX had 0.234 million in cash, add to this say 0.5 million from the recent capital raising and this gives about 0.6 to 0.7 million at the present time. With 88.5 million shares on issue, its cash backing is about 0.8 cps. Its two main proejcts are Bundara which could be worth about 50 cps and Coogee which could be worth say 3.5 cps.

If one compares the performance of IRM with TMX, the former has outperformed TMX over a three year period. It's current price is about 6 cents. If one compares IRM with its iron ore peers, it has underperformed.

My personal view, though I don't know this, is that IRM wants TMX because of Bundarra.

I am not happy with the performance of TMX and I put this down to conservatism of the current management. Add to this that TMX is effectively broke then unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat, gives a reason for the level of the IRM bid. However, I would not sell my TMX shares on a 2 for 1 swap with IRM as I don't think IRM have much short term upside. I would accept 2 IRM shares for each TMX share but this is not going to happen. I think it is possible that their could be a cash bid from other parties and If I had to guess I'd suspect 5 cps would be about right. Of course this in out and out conjecture, I have no evidence of knowledge of such a bid. But in creating a diffence of TMX, Keith is going to have to advertise TMX's assets.

None of this is investment advice, please do your own research.