Takeover vs Acquisition

With Ian Middlemas now on board, I think it is appropriate to open a new thread to discuss “where things might go from here”.
Shareholders have loyally shouldered the main areas of risk and given the Board our monetary support while they have methodically worked to de-risk the Panda Hill project. I have been impressed with the way the Board has managed this project to date and expect this to continue.
Management has consistently reassured shareholders (and the market) as to just what a world class project Panda Hill is going to be. The niobium itself is of a high standard, there is future demand for it, the logistics and the financial numbers are extremely compelling etc etc.
Based on CXX’s own numbers and the strength of Panda Hill’s undoubted potential, I believe the SP has been trading miles below its true value for ages….whether by conspiracy or lack of market awareness, it doesn’t matter now. So, where to from here…
Takeover?
IMO, any takeover bid of CXX simply does not make any sense for shareholders – no matter which way you look at it.
Given most (if not all) of the perceived risk has now been resolved, it is inevitable (& typical) those with the big $$$ will be sniffing around looking for a quick and juicy profit. Here’s a snippet from Argonaut’s recent note…
“We believe Panda Hill has high corporate appeal given the lack of acquirable assets with near term production potential. This is supported by strong margins (detailed below) and Resource upside with potential for a >50 year operation. Unsuccessful bidders engaged in the Catalão process may now turn their interest to Panda Hill”.
Given what lies ahead, why would any sensible thinking shareholder even consider giving away their shares at this stage of the game, as part of any takeover action? IMO, this would be irrational & a basic show of stupidity.
…or Sale?
There appears to be strong interest in “Panda Hill type projects” from acquisition merchants world wide and it is clear they are prepared to pay big money to secure them.
If ever there was a project that can command a high sale price, it is Panda Hill. For all the reasons we (& interested market participants) are already well aware of, if Panda Hill was put up for sale, I believe the competing interests would create such a financial stampede – the resulting yield to shareholders would simply be eye watering.
I don’t know about other shareholders, but I have always been in for the long term (2.5 years so far) and although I am happy to stay on for the mining, I would be equally happy if the Board decided to sell the Panda Hill project. Either way, I am expecting an extremely good return on my capital.
Given their common sense decisions to date, I do not expect the Board to recommend an acceptance of any takeover bid – whatever the price!